Prospects on the 2009 Mediterranean cruise season 18/03/2009 (Delivered at Cruise Shipping Miami Conference and Exhibition - Miami Beach, Florida) MedCruise is the Association of Mediterranean Cruise Ports. Its 53 regular members and 20 associate members, representing 72 ports in the Mediterranean, Black and Red Seas, and the near Atlantic, receive approximately 80% of cruise passenger traffic in the region. MedCruise was founded in Rome 14 years ago and at Seatrade Med last December, members elected a new president, Giovanni Spadoni of Porto di Livorno 2000, and a new 10-member Board of Directors, including Carla Salvadó, senior vice president, from the port of Barcelona, Spain; and José Francisco Torrado, vice president, from the port of Ceuta, Spain. Each member of the Board of Directors has been assigned specific tasks with the aim to develop high-quality and better run cruise ports among the membership. Other Board members include Aldo Babic of Koper, Slovenia; Enrica Capretti of Venice, Italy;  Haluk Sayman of Alanya, Turkey;  Valeria Mangiarotti of Cagliari, Italy; David Stupelman of Sochi, Russia; Snijezana Papes of Rijeka, Croatia;  Yiannakis Kokkinos of Cyprus ports; and Malcolm Morini of Civitavecchia, Italy. MED GROWTH AND THE UPCOMING 2009 SEASON The Mediterranean regions have witnessed astounding growth in cruise traffic over the past 10 years. In the last several years, passenger traffic growth rates have consistently increased year-by-year. The ports’ forecast for the 2009 season shows prospects for slowing growth rates, with some very interesting variations. From 1998 to 2007, MedCruise ports have experienced an average annual cumulative growth rate in passenger traffic of 12.8%. During these years, the high season has expanded with November and April having been incorporated into the high season with five to six-fold increases in numbers of passengers from 1998 to 2007. December and March are beginning to follow suit. A survey of scheduled 2009 calls at MedCruise ports demonstrate, in general terms, continued growth at large ports, but at a reduced rate when compared to years before.  When comparing 2009 with 2008, home ports and marquee ports show either a similar number of ships calling or small increases in the number of calls, generally between two and six percent.  Expected passenger traffic growth rates consistently exceed the growth in the number of cruise calls, which reflects the trend for larger-occupancy ships visiting Mediterranean ports in 2009, and the larger new builds, of which several will be launched at Mediterranean ports this season. Yet, the projections for passenger traffic are not guaranteed, as they are subject to ships arriving at full capacity. Traffic trends at Mediterranean small ports, on the other hand, show increasing volatility in that some are experiencing large amounts of growth in both cruise calls and passenger volume, and others, significant drops. This is likely due to two factors: 1) as itineraries are becoming varied, new small ports are being selected and others omitted; 2) some lesser known ports are becoming discovered and evolving into mainstay ports. Also, MedCruise has been assisting new ports entering the cruise industry. Multiple new calls at pots like Rijeka, Koper, Castellón, and Palamós are spreading the passenger statistics to new destinations and providing more room for growth. MedCruise is seeing its ports profiting from their investments in infrastructure and good management, shifting from small ports to becoming large ports, and as in the case of Malaga, experiencing a significant increase in home port activity. New winter itineraries have created a mini boom in winter traffic at some Western Med ports this 2008/2009 season, with Malta receiving a 400% increase in winter calls, not coincidentally, the year after hosting Seatrade’s first Winter Cruise Forum. While Carnival’s removal of two ships from the Med this season doesn’t greatly impact traffic figures, it was felt as a signal to the industry about the reality of the economic crisis.  MedCruise sees any removal of North American ships as being compensated by the expansion in capacity of the European brands in the Med – such as MSC, Costa, Pullmantur and AIDA – and brands that cater to the growing local source markets. While the industry is providing 14 new ships this season, there is no signal from the Mediterranean ports that the level of port infrastructure investments in the cruise sector is decreasing in 2009. THE ADRIATIC SEA Italian and Slovenian ports are projecting the highest levels of growth in cruise calls and passenger numbers in the Med this season, which is supported by a significant number of new ships. However, Dubrovnik, which has seen 15% to 20% annual increases during the last several years, will note a drop in calls and passenger traffic this year. In all Adriatic ports a decline in off season calls is noted when comparing the winter periods of 2007/2008 to 2008/2009. In the region, the most dynamic activities are seen in construction of new terminals, such as in Rijeka, Ravenna, Dubrovnik and Venice, and the construction of new or extended piers in most Croatian ports. New shore excursions: Koper, Slovenia – a typical Slovenian “village crawl” taking in authentic aspects of daily Slovenian life, including organic farming. Ravenna, Italy – on a special occasion, a tour of the city’s fine arts museum hosted by the museum director and a final cocktail and string quartet concert at the Loggia building, constructed in the 700s. Venice, Italy – the new contemporary art center of Venice “Punta della Dogana” combines 17th-century architecture across from St. Mark’s Square with newly redesigned spaces by world-famous architects, Tadao Ando and Zaha Hadid. THE BLACK SEA AND EASTERN MED Among MedCruise ports, there is little growth projected in these regions. However, Sochi, the Russian Black Sea resort city, is seeing several new ships calling and an increase of 14% over 2008. Sochi is the recent host of a MedCruise General Assembly and future host of the 2014 Winter Olympics. Sochi is investing heavily in new port infrastructure in preparation for the Olympics. Also, Cyprus ports is investing 17 million euros on a new passenger terminal at Larnaka. Alexandria, Egypt, has just completed a major mixed-use joint development port project, including a new cruise terminal, presented at the Cruise Shipping Miami conference. Some ports in these regions have been hindered by geopolitical strife, yet in May 2009, passenger shipping between Sochi, Russia, and Batumi, Georgia, will resume. THE WESTERN MED AND ATLANTIC Among the key ports in the region, 2009 passenger traffic is either stable or will experience small levels of growth. While some less-frequented small ports in the Western Med are seeing their traffic increase significantly, others will experience drops this season. Many ports are experiencing a large increase in winter traffic in 2008/2009, such as at Baleares, Barcelona, Palermo and Valletta. Nearly all Western Med ports are investing in capital projects to help accommodate the growing number of cruise ships. For example, Malaga’s and Barcelona’s cruise terminal projects completed or under construction amount to nearly 40 million euros and 20 million euros in capital investments, respectively, and Palermo will soon begin a 25-million-euro expansion of its passenger terminal facilities,. New cruise industry services and initiatives: The French Riviera Cruise Club’s purpose is to raise awareness among local decision makers of the valuable economic input generated by the cruise holiday. Cartagena, Spain – The Association of Cruise Friends Shops includes 40 establishments guaranteed to open their establishments during traditional “off hours” when a cruise ship with more than 300 passengers calls at Cartagena. Compliments to Cartagena, which should be an example to other Mediterranean ports. New shore excursions: Genoa, Italy (and Rijeka, Croatia) – exhibitions at the port on the European emigration to America on passenger ships. Accessible Lisbon – passengers in wheelchairs and their companions are provided tailor-made excursions through the Portuguese capital. Palamós, Spain – passengers participate in a cooking class taught by renowned Catalan chefs. 2009 EVENTS AT MEDCRUISE PORTS Cruise Ship Christenings - Seabourn ODYSSEY in Venice, Italy; AIDALUNA in Palma de Majorca, Spain (April 4th and 5th); MSC SPLENDIDA in Barcelona, Spain (July 12th). MedCruise General Assemblies – May, Cartagena; October, Monaco. European Cruise Council 2009 Conference. May 19th, Rome. 2010 – CANNES hosts Seatrade Med.